Sasha Sotnik posted this commentary on his Facebook page a few weeks ago. At first I was a bit hesitant to post it (I’m not entirely sure why). But I kept thinking about it, and have finally decided to share Sotnik’s comment:
The situation in Russia is moving so fast that I catch myself thinking: even to talk about the future lustration is Manilovism [complacency and daydreaming typified by a character in Gogol’s Dead Souls]
Firstly, Russia awaits the path to the collapse of the dictatorship through either an episode of severe repression, or through a war (foreign or civil), accompanied by the same internal repression;
Secondly, to halt the decline is no longer possible, everything is at the point of no return, we have slipped long ago, and according to the laws (of history & physics) to jump back “from the edge of the abyss”, from which we have fallen down, will not work;
Thirdly, it is inevitable that Russia will disintegrate into several territories. This will happen through the collapse of the economy, when the “Centre” will no longer be needed by the regions, and local princelings themselves will draw the boundaries of their “ancestral lands”, stop paying “tribute” to the federal “horde” and declare independence.
There are already some isolated scenarios: someone installs an authorisation system, another will begin lustration at a local level, followed by a move to civilised forms of government, while others will turn to gangsterism…
Only the present-day Russia in its current geo-political borders will not be touched. Like in the USSR after 1991.
It is sad to write all of this, but what can you do… We all had a hand in it.