Ulyukaev Affair

Rosbalt held a round-table earlier this week on the so-called “Ulyukaev Affair”. Former Economic Development Minister Ulyukaev remains under house arrest for allegedly taking a $2 million bribe for his decision on the Rosneft takeover of Bashneft.

The round-table included the Director of the “Political Experts Group” Konstantin Kalachev, and Nikolai Mironov of the Centre for Economic and Political Reform.

Kalachev told the group that he thought that what happened to Ulyukaev was a signal to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that his future prospects were not bright. And that Medvedev had no hope of being President again.

Kalachev also did not rule out more arrests:

“The genie is out of the bottle, and none of the elite can feel completely safe. The temptation to turn this story into the start of the presidential campaign – in response to a request for justice in society – is there. The popularity of officials is not high, as you know, and the old theme of “Good Tsar, bad boyars”… just might be implemented through high-profile arrests.”

Nikolai Mironov thought (as I do) that the case against Ulyukaev was to show people that the Kremlin was doing something to fight corruption.

“At the same time… data from the latest opinion polls shows that Russians’ belief in anti-corruption policies remains low even after the detention of a member of the government.”

Mironov recalled that after former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov was let off easy for his role in the Oboronservis fraud case it became clear that there was one set of rules for the elite and another for everybody else. And Russians have not forgotten this.

Mironov also suggested that the rules of the game had changed, and that nobody could be considered safe. But, he pointed out, Russia still has a clan system that relies on “backroom agreements”.

Kalachev agreed, saying that “…the Ulyukaev affair continues to demonstrate “the Byzantine nature of our politics”.”

Meanwhile Reuters reported earlier this week that Ulyukaev had been discussing diluting the state’s share in Rosneft further than currently planned, though not right away. Rosneft’s sale is supposed to go through next month, with 19.5% of the state’s holding in the company up on the auction block. The state will then own 50% of the company, “a blocking stake”. The government is anxious to offload the shares before the end of the year in order to get the cash that it desperately needs.

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